Matthew Shay, President and CEO, National Retail Federation  

The economy has been much stronger in 2024 than most experts expected, as consumers –supported by a healthy labour market and wage growth that has generally outpaced inflation – have continued to spend on household priorities and where they find value. 

Though consumers have faced budget constraints from the cumulative effects of higher prices, higher interest rates, port strikes and geopolitical tensions, retailers have responded decisively, reducing prices and creating great shopping experiences in a highly competitive market. While some persistent inflation remains in services, goods inflation is now flat to slightly negative in many categories of goods. 

With a shortened holiday shopping season now in full swing, NRF expects holiday sales to grow between 2.5% to 3.5% above last year, or between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in sales. Our forecast is consistent with our annual sales forecast range for all of 2024, which also calls for between 2.5% to 3.5% growth. As we have long expected, retail sales growth is returning to more sustainable pre-pandemic levels. 

Though we’re still developing our outlook for the economy and the retail industry for 2025, we have identified policy priorities to help retail succeed in the year ahead.  

NRF is prepared to work closely with the incoming Trump administration and a new Congress to advance policy priorities focused on tax, trade and regulatory reforms that will enhance America’s competitiveness, boost domestic investment and create jobs.  

Advocating for effective trade policies and eliminating tariffs. 

The adoption of across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods and other non-strategic imports would amount to a tax on American families. These tariffs will drive inflation and price increases and will result in job losses. We are aggressively countering these proposed tariffs on imports that could reduce consumer spending by as much as $78 billion annually. 

Preparing to preserve pro-growth tax policy.  

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act will expire in 2025. Retailers and consumers have benefited from the lower tax rate, and NRF will pursue quick reauthorization. 

Continuing the fight against rising swipe fees.  

NRF is advocating for reforming credit card swipe fees and promoting greater competition by supporting passage of the Credit Card Competition Act. 

Building support for the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act. 

NRF strongly supports increasing federal coordination to fight crime by passing the bipartisan Combating Organized Retail Crime Act.

Challenging anti-business and anti-worker labor laws.  

NRF has remained committed to ensuring retailers can manage their workforces by establishing policies that support retail workers’ career growth. 

The overall strength of the economy generated steady gains in retail sales in 2024. While some uncertainty exists with respect to new policy provisions with the new Congress and administration, we expect to see moderating economic growth through 2025. 

  

Christel Delberghe, Director General, EuroCommerce 

 

Navigating Challenges: stepping up Europe's retail & wholesale representation in 2024 

2024 brought a whole host of challenges for retail and wholesale in Europe. Our annual State of Grocery retail report with McKinsey published in spring, showed early signs of recovery after months of declining volumes and consumers trading down. We helped our members deal with huge regulatory pressure and challenges at the end of the EU mandate, and also on issues such as the deforestation regulation for which we obtained a 12-month delay. In September, we introduced our sector with a manifesto and a members’ delegation to the new European Parliament, followed by a Europe-wide campaign calling for a level playing field for all traders.  

This year we extended our partnership with McKinsey to launch the State of Retail report in Europe focusing on nongrocery transformation in the autumn. Together with Ecommerce Europe, we updated the E-Commerce Europe report with 2024 data and launched a new initiative with Oliver Wyman on Tackling the hidden carbon footprint in European retail and wholesale value chains. 

What 2025 has in store for us… 

With a new European Parliament and College of Commissioners in place, we look forward to renewed engagement on topics of critical importance to our sector in 2025.  

The Commission’s new priorities reflect a commitment towards rebuilding a more united, more resilient Europe, that can navigate global challenges while promising greater prosperity, security, and the upholding of democratic values. Reflecting on the report by former ECB President M. Draghi, we expect a greater focus on competitiveness, innovation, decarbonisation, and (economic) security. 

With few MEPs or Commissioners returning, building an understanding of the essential role of our sector will need to recommence from the ground up. We plan an EU Retail and Wholesale week in the European Parliament in September and look forward to many submissions for our second Future of Retail Awards in December 2025! 

 

Mark W. Baum, Chief Collaboration & Commercial Officer and SVP, Industry Relations, FMI – The Food Industry Association  

 

The current environment of global political uncertainty, stubborn inflation, disrupted supply chains and climate change has created a sense of urgency and strengthened resolve throughout our industry. In addition, we are anticipating the changes that will be coming with a new U.S. political administration.  

At the same time, we’re very excited about the future. We’re in an era of retail transformation and innovation -- some of which is in response to changing dynamics in areas like consumer health, and some of it is just due to the ongoing quest for differentiation and ability to meet ever-changing consumer needs. 

As we prepare for 2025, one of our priority issues at FMI will be labor/talent, especially considering the different expectations of an incoming younger workforce, as well as the impact of automation and robotics on job functions throughout the industry. We’ll also be focused on futureproofing the supply chain and reimagining the businesses and marketplaces with a more holistic view of “the future of food”. 

Sustainability is another key issue, and for now, companies are more focused on areas that can be addressed, realized, and in some cases monetized in the short term, like food waste and packaging. But when I look at the future, an important and more strategic question to ask and answer is, what is our role in feeding and caring for a more crowded, hotter planet with finite resources? 

I would be remiss to not mention technology and the new tools that are enabling our industry to improve product traceability, enhance productivity, mine consumer insights, and so much more. We’re now entering an era of artificial intelligence, and that, to me, has the potential to impact on our industry more than anything since the advent of the PC. 

We’ll certainly continue to see more volatility and instability (not to mention more industry consolidation) going forward, so grocery practitioners must learn to operate in an atmosphere of ongoing uncertainty and ambiguity. If we can do that, while keeping consumers front and center, I’m confident that we’ll be in a bolder position to fulfill our mission to take care of our associates, customers, and communities. 

Bijou Kurien, Chairman, Retailers Association of India

Although a number of problems and difficulties are anticipated to influence the Indian retail industry, things have changed quickly in 2024.  

Consumer and purchasing behaviour are changing significantly as a result of the digitization of commerce, including access to goods and services, payments, and fulfilment. Retailers are under pressure to change and implement newer strategies and technology to expand their businesses and cater to a brand-new market of tech-savvy consumers, who are more informed and pickier about what they get from stores.  

Value and price have become more crucial factors for consumers. Particularly apparent in the food and fashion categories. This might have been caused by more value retailers opening, more companies entering the value fashion market, or more general global trends. This behaviour has also been influenced by the macro inflationary environment. Surprisingly, the premium market has also shown robust growth as a result of the K-shaped rebound following COVID-19. India’s consumption is changing in two ways. Previously, we would have divided them into two categories: urban and rural. However, this is no longer the case. We are seeing this differential consumer behaviour even in metropolitan India.  

Channels of sale are changing quickly, even if retail forms are still both online and offline. Quick commerce, which first affected food and grocery stores in crowded areas, is now grabbing a bigger chunk of the retail market, in more locations and more categories. Younger Indian consumers are driving e-commerce's growth, which has seen it move beyond the initial food, fashion, and electronics categories, to include other consumption categories and services.  

The biggest obstacles for 2025 will not change from those in 2024.  

It will be essential to combine the offline and online buying experiences. To meet customer expectations, retailers must offer smooth transitions between their online and physical stores. This entails making investments in technology that close the gap between online and offline business processes. 
 
It will be crucial to comprehend and adjust to changing customer preferences and behaviours. As customers look for distinctive and customized buying experiences, personalization and customer involvement are becoming increasingly crucial. Retailers must use data analytics to foresee and successfully address these changes. AI will have a bigger impact on assortment management, retail operations, and go-to-market technology.  
 
The importance of sustainable practices is rising. Retailers have already started implementing eco-friendly practices, such using less plastic. Many companies are adopting a broader ESG strategy, which will drive more efforts like ethical product sourcing and waste minimization. Customer preferences are another factor driving this tendency.  
 
Supply chain disruptions can result from trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions sparked by changing global leadership. The ultra-nationalism engendered by changing politics will further emphasize this. It is essential to have strong and resilient supply networks to manage interruptions and preserve steady product availability.  
 
The increasing scarcity and cost of high-quality real estate is impeding growth.  

Overall, despite ongoing difficulties, the allure for the adaptable Indian retailer is to capitalize on the consumer potential presented by a population of 1.4 billion people with a GDP expanding at a rate of 7%. 

 

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium  

 

Like so many a new year, 2024 started with optimism. The pound strengthened and inflation dipped below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in three years. However, trading remained tough as ever, consumer confidence still below pre-pandemic levels, footfall continued to struggle to recover and UK retail Sales grew slowly. 

The big UK political news was the change of government. The industry’s relationship with the previous administration was, to put it bluntly, fraught. Labour’s manifesto offered hope. A commitment to reform business rates, give the Apprenticeship Levy more flexibility and crack down on retail crime. 

The new government’s first Budget in October was challenging. Raising the Employers National Insurance Contributions to 15% was widely trailed but lowering the threshold at which it is paid was the sting in the tail given it disproportionately affects industries with many working part-time. Alongside other new regulations retailers face £7 billion of additional costs from next year. Given incredibly tight margins, a tough situation heading into the New Year. 

There are reasons for optimism. While violence and abuse continues to rise, the government’s pledge for a new specific offence for assaulting a retail worker is welcome. Likewise, we should see meaningful reform that would help the industry upskill its workforce.  

But dealing with lots of new costs means the operating models of thousands of businesses will change. Investment, already under pressure before the Budget, will be trimmed further. Investment that does get through is likely to be in efficiency savings and automation, as retailers try and mitigate the narrowing gap between revenues and costs. Price rises seem to be inevitable.  

But everyone who works in retail knows this industry is nothing if not resilient. Brexit, the pandemic, cost-of-living crisis – all showed the ability to face immense obstacles. I have no doubt it will meet the cost-of-business challenge too. 

 

Deborah Patton, Managing Editor, The Robin Report

As The Robin Report looks forward to a massively disruptive, unpredictable year for retail in 2025, what’s the defining factor that will shape the next 12 months in the U.S. … and beyond?   

With the prospect of tariffs that could cripple the retail industry, what are retail operators going to do? Unfortunately, whatever normalization trends emerged in 2024 may be fundamentally reversed in 2025 if, or when, Donald Trump’s promised imposition of tariffs takes place. Whether on the manufacturing or retail side, plans are already being drawn up to accommodate tariff-driven price increases.  

We predict, in the cold hard light of day, consumers forced to shoulder these newly imposed tariffs will respond with muted spending. There will be a scramble to move overseas production from China to other countries, but that won’t fully alleviate the impending increases that consumers will be faced with. Tariffs may very well be imposed on other countries than China and then of course there will likely be retaliatory actions taken which will further exacerbate pressure on the retail consumer.  

Net/net, 2024 may be described as a year of recovery in retail.  In contrast, 2025 could very well see retailing revert to the Covid/post-Covid weakness that we have just started to shrug off.  

In light of the incredible uncertainty posed by the new administration’s rhetoric without specificity, we can only forecast retail performance next year very cautiously.